Predictions · Saudi Arabian First Division League · outside model coverage
Jeddah
1–0
Lost
Al Najma
The model leans Al Najma at 50%. Expected goals: Jeddah 0.97, Al Najma 1.75. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match20
26
55
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jeddah | 20% | 5.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Najma | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Najma. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.5%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.6%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Najma −0.5| Jeddah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 14% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 24% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 24% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.