Al Najma
Al Ittihad
The model leans Al Ittihad at 60%. Expected goals: Al Najma 1.01, Al Ittihad 2.33. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%. Al Najma won 1 of their last 4; Al Ittihad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Najma | 14% | 7.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Ittihad | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Ittihad. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 2.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–37.6%
- 0–37.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Ittihad −1| Al Najma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 10% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| +0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| +1 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| +1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.