Al Najma
Al Jabalain
The model leans Al Jabalain at 38%. Expected goals: Al Najma 1.31, Al Jabalain 1.49. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Al Najma won 1 of their last 4; Al Jabalain won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Najma | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Jabalain | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Jabalain. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 1.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–26.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Najma 0| Al Najma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 21% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.