Al Jabalain
Al-Ettifaq
The model leans Al-Ettifaq at 41%. Expected goals: Al Jabalain 1.34, Al-Ettifaq 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Al Jabalain won 1 of their last 3; Al-Ettifaq won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Jabalain | 30% | 3.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Ettifaq | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Ettifaq. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.9%
- 1–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Ettifaq −0.5| Al Jabalain line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 17% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 22% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.