Al-Ettifaq
Al Riyadh
The model leans Al-Ettifaq at 53%. Expected goals: Al-Ettifaq 2.07, Al Riyadh 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%. Al-Ettifaq won 2 of their last 5; Al Riyadh won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Ettifaq | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Riyadh | 17% | 5.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Ettifaq. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.07 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 3–16.9%
- 3–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Ettifaq −1| Al-Ettifaq line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 21% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.