Al-Ettifaq
Al Diriyah
The model leans Al-Ettifaq at 37%. Expected goals: Al-Ettifaq 1.91, Al Diriyah 1.84. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. Al-Ettifaq won 2 of their last 5; Al Diriyah won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Ettifaq | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Diriyah | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Ettifaq. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.91 – 1.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.3%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
- 1–34.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Ettifaq 0| Al-Ettifaq line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 19% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 21% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.