Al Diriyah
Al Ahli
The model leans Al Ahli at 53%. Expected goals: Al Diriyah 1.13, Al Ahli 2.22. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%. Al Diriyah won 2 of their last 6; Al Ahli won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Diriyah | 17% | 5.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Ahli | 61% | 1.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Ahli. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 2.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–28.7%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–36.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Ahli −1| Al Diriyah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 12% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.