Al Anwar
Al Ahli
The model leans Al Ahli at 70%. Expected goals: Al Anwar 0.90, Al Ahli 3.38. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 58%. Al Anwar won 0 of their last 3; Al Ahli won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Anwar | 6% | 17.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 9.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Ahli | 83% | 1.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Ahli. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 83%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.90 – 3.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 0–39.0%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–28.0%
- 0–47.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 1–46.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Ahli −2| Al Anwar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 4% | 94% |
| -0.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| 0 | 6% | 10% | 84% |
| +0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| +1 | 16% | 17% | 67% |
| +1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.