Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Rio Ave
2–2
Lost
Al Ahli
The model leans Al Ahli at 63%. Expected goals: Rio Ave 0.66, Al Ahli 2.18. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match19
72
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rio Ave | 9% | 11.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Ahli | 72% | 1.40 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Ahli. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.66 – 2.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–213.9%
- 0–112.7%
- 0–310.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.4%
- 1–36.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Ahli −1.5| Rio Ave line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 7% | 90% |
| -0.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| 0 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| +0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| +1 | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| +1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.