Estoril
0–2
Lost
Rio Ave
The model leans Estoril at 53%. Expected goals: Estoril 2.07, Rio Ave 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default59
23
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estoril | 59% | 1.68 | 1.96 | 47% | +12 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.42 | 3.30 | 28% | −5 |
| 2Rio Ave | 18% | 5.57 | 3.75 | 25% | −7 |
Pick: Estoril. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.07 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–16.9%
- 3–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Estoril −1| Estoril line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.