Nacional
2–0
Won
Estoril
The model leans Nacional at 36%. Expected goals: Nacional 1.43, Estoril 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default38
28
34
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nacional | 38% | 2.63 | 2.82 | 33% | +5 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | 3.30 | 28% | −1 |
| 2Estoril | 34% | 2.92 | 2.45 | 38% | −4 |
Pick: Nacional. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nacional 0| Nacional line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 25% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.