Nacional
2–3
Lost
Estrela da Amadora
The model leans Nacional at 43%. Expected goals: Nacional 1.45, Estrela da Amadora 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default46
29
25
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nacional | 46% | 2.17 | 2.25 | 42% | +5 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | 3.30 | 28% | +1 |
| 2Estrela da Amadora | 25% | 4.03 | 3.10 | 30% | −5 |
Pick: Nacional. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.45 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–012.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–08.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nacional −0.5| Nacional line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.