Vitoria de Guimaraes
Nacional
The model leans Vitoria de Guimaraes at 40%. Expected goals: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1.33, Nacional 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitoria de Guimaraes | 43% | 2.32 | 1.62 | 57% | −14 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | 3.60 | 26% | +5 |
| 2Nacional | 27% | 3.75 | 5.25 | 18% | +9 |
Pick: Vitoria de Guimaraes. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.33 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.7%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 2–18.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vitoria de Guimaraes −0.5| Vitoria de Guimaraes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 24% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.