Alverca
2–2
Lost
Estrela da Amadora
The model leans Alverca at 39%. Expected goals: Alverca 1.40, Estrela da Amadora 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default42
29
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alverca | 42% | 2.39 | 2.15 | 44% | −2 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | 3.25 | 29% | 0 |
| 2Estrela da Amadora | 29% | 3.44 | 3.50 | 27% | +2 |
Pick: Alverca. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.40 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.0%
- 2–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Alverca 0| Alverca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 23% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.