FC Porto
2–0
Won
Alverca
The model leans FC Porto at 68%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.16, Alverca 0.43. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 68%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match77
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Porto | 77% | 1.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Alverca | 5% | 18.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Porto. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.16 – 0.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 2–017.5%
- 1–016.2%
- 3–012.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–07.5%
- 1–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Porto −1.5| FC Porto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| -1 | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.