Académico Viseu
0–3
Won
FC Porto
The model leans FC Porto at 41%. Expected goals: Académico Viseu 0.74, FC Porto 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 63%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default22
34
44
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Académico Viseu | 22% | 4.48 | 10.00 | 9% | +13 |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.98 | 5.00 | 18% | +15 |
| 2FC Porto | 44% | 2.27 | 1.25 | 73% | −29 |
Pick: FC Porto. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.74 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.4%
- 0–015.2%
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–27.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Porto −0.5| Académico Viseu line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 17% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 31% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.