Maritimo
Academico Viseu
The model leans Maritimo at 29%. Expected goals: Maritimo 1.02, Academico Viseu 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 59%. Maritimo won 1 of their last 3; Academico Viseu won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Maritimo | 34% | 2.94 | 1.96 | 48% | −14 |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.98 | 3.30 | 28% | +5 |
| 2Academico Viseu | 33% | 3.08 | 3.90 | 24% | +9 |
Pick: Maritimo. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 34%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.5%
- 0–113.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Maritimo 0| Maritimo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 22% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.