Academico Viseu
Santa Clara
The model leans Academico Viseu at 51%. Expected goals: Academico Viseu 1.50, Santa Clara 0.66. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%. Academico Viseu won 0 of their last 3; Santa Clara won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Academico Viseu | 57% | 1.77 | 3.10 | 30% | +26 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.52 | 2.85 | 33% | −4 |
| 2Santa Clara | 15% | 6.64 | 2.50 | 37% | −22 |
Pick: Academico Viseu. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 0.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.4%
- 2–013.0%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 57% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Academico Viseu −1| Academico Viseu line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 27% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.