Santa Clara
1–0
Lost
Famalicao
The model leans Famalicao at 39%. Expected goals: Santa Clara 0.75, Famalicao 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default24
35
41
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santa Clara | 24% | 4.19 | 2.82 | 33% | −9 |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.89 | 2.75 | 34% | +1 |
| 2Famalicao | 41% | 2.41 | 2.75 | 34% | +8 |
Pick: Famalicao. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.75 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.4%
- 0–016.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–27.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Famalicao −0.5| Santa Clara line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 18% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 32% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 25% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.