Alverca
Santa Clara
The model leans Alverca at 29%. Expected goals: Alverca 1.06, Santa Clara 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 57%. Alverca won 0 of their last 3; Santa Clara won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alverca | 35% | 2.87 | 2.50 | 37% | −2 |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.04 | 3.10 | 30% | +3 |
| 2Santa Clara | 32% | 3.10 | 2.82 | 33% | −1 |
Pick: Alverca. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.3%
- 0–112.7%
- 0–012.5%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Alverca 0| Alverca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.