Maritimo
1–0
Won
Casa Pia AC
The model leans Maritimo at 54%. Expected goals: Maritimo 1.64, Casa Pia AC 0.59. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match62
26
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Maritimo | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Casa Pia AC | 12% | 8.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Maritimo. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 0.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.6%
- 2–014.4%
- 0–010.7%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Maritimo −1| Maritimo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 10% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.