Casa Pia AC
0–1
Lost
Moreirense
The model leans Casa Pia AC at 29%. Expected goals: Casa Pia AC 1.03, Moreirense 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default34
33
33
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Casa Pia AC | 34% | 2.92 | 2.50 | 37% | −3 |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.01 | 3.10 | 30% | +3 |
| 2Moreirense | 33% | 3.07 | 2.85 | 33% | 0 |
Pick: Casa Pia AC. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 34%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 67%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.1%
- 0–113.1%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Casa Pia AC 0| Casa Pia AC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 31% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.