Arouca
4–0
Won
Moreirense
The model leans Arouca at 50%. Expected goals: Arouca 1.71, Moreirense 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default50
26
24
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arouca | 50% | 1.99 | 1.81 | 51% | −1 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | 3.50 | 27% | 0 |
| 2Moreirense | 24% | 4.23 | 4.20 | 22% | +2 |
Pick: Arouca. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.71 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–16.6%
- 1–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arouca −0.5| Arouca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.