Arouca
Marítimo
The model leans Marítimo at 40%. Expected goals: Arouca 1.20, Marítimo 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Arouca won 3 of their last 3; Marítimo won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arouca | 29% | 3.43 | 2.10 | 44% | −15 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.58 | 3.25 | 28% | −1 |
| 2Marítimo | 43% | 2.33 | 3.40 | 27% | +16 |
Pick: Marítimo. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.20 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 39% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Marítimo −0.5| Arouca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 25% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.