Al-Ettifaq
Al Nassr FC
The model leans Al Nassr FC at 61%. Expected goals: Al-Ettifaq 1.03, Al Nassr FC 2.54. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%. Al-Ettifaq won 2 of their last 5; Al Nassr FC won 5 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Ettifaq | 13% | 7.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.52 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Nassr FC | 69% | 1.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Nassr FC. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 2.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.4%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–37.7%
- 1–17.4%
- 0–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Nassr FC −1.5| Al-Ettifaq line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 9% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 17% | 70% |
| +0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| +1 | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| +1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.