Al-Zulfi
Al Riyadh
The model leans Al-Zulfi at 42%. Expected goals: Al-Zulfi 1.56, Al Riyadh 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Al-Zulfi won 0 of their last 3; Al Riyadh won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Zulfi | 46% | 2.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Riyadh | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Zulfi. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.56 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–26.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 39% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Zulfi −0.5| Al-Zulfi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.