Al Riyadh
Neom SC
The model leans Neom SC at 40%. Expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.10, Neom SC 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Al Riyadh won 2 of their last 5; Neom SC won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Riyadh | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Neom SC | 43% | 2.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Neom SC. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Neom SC −0.5| Al Riyadh line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 26% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.