Al Fateh FC
Al Ittihad
The model leans Al Ittihad at 43%. Expected goals: Al Fateh FC 1.25, Al Ittihad 1.67. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Al Fateh FC won 0 of their last 5; Al Ittihad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Fateh FC | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Ittihad | 46% | 2.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Ittihad. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 1.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Ittihad −0.5| Al Fateh FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.