Predictions · King's Cup · outside model coverage

Al-Ula FC

30
Won

Al Fateh FC

The model leans Al-Ula FC at 51%. Expected goals: Al-Ula FC 1.90, Al Fateh FC 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Al-Ula FC won 4 of their last 4; Al Fateh FC won 0 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al-Ula FC59%1.71
XDraw24%4.14
2Al Fateh FC17%5.77

Pick: Al-Ula FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.90 – 0.95
LineOverUnder
1.578%22%
2.554%46%
3.532%68%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1011.1%
  • 2010.5%
  • 1110.5%
  • 219.9%
  • 306.6%
  • 316.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al-Ula FC −1
Al-Ula FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.535%65%
-135%24%40%
-0.560%40%
060%22%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%12%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.