Al-Ula FC
Al Fateh FC
The model leans Al-Ula FC at 51%. Expected goals: Al-Ula FC 1.90, Al Fateh FC 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Al-Ula FC won 4 of their last 4; Al Fateh FC won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Ula FC | 59% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Fateh FC | 17% | 5.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Ula FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.90 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.1%
- 2–010.5%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.6%
- 3–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Ula FC −1| Al-Ula FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 24% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.