Predictions · Saudi Pro League · outside model coverage

Al-Faisaly

11
Lost

Al Fateh FC

The model leans Al-Faisaly at 53%. Expected goals: Al-Faisaly 2.16, Al Fateh FC 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 59%. Al-Faisaly won 0 of their last 5; Al Fateh FC won 0 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al-Faisaly61%1.64
XDraw22%4.58
2Al Fateh FC17%5.80

Pick: Al-Faisaly. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.16 – 1.08
LineOverUnder
1.583%17%
2.563%37%
3.541%59%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 219.9%
  • 119.1%
  • 209.1%
  • 108.4%
  • 317.1%
  • 306.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al-Faisaly −1
Al-Faisaly lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.539%61%
-139%23%38%
-0.562%38%
062%20%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%12%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.