Predictions · Saudi Pro League · outside model coverage

Al Ittihad

32
Won

Al Hazem

The model leans Al Ittihad at 54%. Expected goals: Al Ittihad 2.14, Al Hazem 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%. Al Ittihad won 3 of their last 6; Al Hazem won 2 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al Ittihad62%1.61
XDraw22%4.58
2Al Hazem16%6.21

Pick: Al Ittihad. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.14 – 1.02
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.561%39%
3.539%61%
Both teams to scoreYes56%No44%

Most likely scores

  • 219.9%
  • 209.7%
  • 119.3%
  • 109.1%
  • 317.1%
  • 306.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al Ittihad −1
Al Ittihad lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.540%60%
-140%23%37%
-0.563%37%
063%20%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%11%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.