Al Hazem
Al Shabab
The model leans Al Hazem at 38%. Expected goals: Al Hazem 1.62, Al Shabab 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%. Al Hazem won 2 of their last 5; Al Shabab won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Hazem | 41% | 2.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.81 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Shabab | 32% | 3.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Hazem. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–07.8%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Hazem 0| Al Hazem line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 21% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 18% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.