Al Khaleej
Al Shabab
The model leans Al Khaleej at 43%. Expected goals: Al Khaleej 2.11, Al Shabab 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%. Al Khaleej won 0 of their last 6; Al Shabab won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Khaleej | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.46 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Shabab | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Khaleej. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.11 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.8%
- 3–25.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Khaleej −0.5| Al Khaleej line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 20% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 21% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 16% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.