Predictions · Saudi Pro League · outside model coverage

Al-Fayha

22
Lost

Al Kholood

The model leans Al-Fayha at 44%. Expected goals: Al-Fayha 1.63, Al Kholood 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Al-Fayha won 2 of their last 6; Al Kholood won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al-Fayha48%2.09
XDraw27%3.71
2Al Kholood25%3.97

Pick: Al-Fayha. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.63 – 1.13
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.552%48%
3.530%70%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.7%
  • 1010.3%
  • 219.5%
  • 208.4%
  • 017.2%
  • 126.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al-Fayha −0.5
Al-Fayha lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%23%51%
-0.549%51%
049%25%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%16%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.