Al-Wehda
Damac FC
The model leans Damac FC at 40%. Expected goals: Al-Wehda 1.18, Damac FC 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Al-Wehda won 1 of their last 4; Damac FC won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Wehda | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Damac FC | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Damac FC. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.18 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 6% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Damac FC −0.5| Al-Wehda line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.