Predictions · Saudi Arabian First Division League · outside model coverage

Damac FC

00
Lost

Al-Orobah FC

The model leans Al-Orobah FC at 29%. Expected goals: Damac FC 1.17, Al-Orobah FC 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Damac FC won 0 of their last 3; Al-Orobah FC won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Damac FC34%2.91
XDraw31%3.26
2Al-Orobah FC35%2.86

Pick: Al-Orobah FC. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.18
LineOverUnder
1.568%32%
2.542%58%
3.521%79%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.2%
  • 0111.3%
  • 1011.2%
  • 009.6%
  • 127.8%
  • 217.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Damac FC 0
Damac FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.515%85%
-115%21%64%
-0.536%64%
036%28%36%
+0.564%36%
+164%21%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.