Predictions · King's Cup · outside model coverage

Damac FC

03
Won

Al-Taawoun

The model leans Al-Taawoun at 50%. Expected goals: Damac FC 1.02, Al-Taawoun 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Damac FC won 0 of their last 3; Al-Taawoun won 1 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Damac FC23%4.30
XDraw28%3.63
2Al-Taawoun49%2.03

Pick: Al-Taawoun. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.02 – 1.58
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.548%52%
3.527%73%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.0%
  • 0111.7%
  • 129.5%
  • 029.3%
  • 107.5%
  • 007.4%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al-Taawoun −0.5
Damac FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.59%91%
-19%16%76%
-0.524%76%
024%25%50%
+0.550%50%
+150%24%26%
+1.574%26%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.