Al-Wehda
Al-Adalah
The model leans Al-Wehda at 50%. Expected goals: Al-Wehda 2.12, Al-Adalah 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. Al-Wehda won 1 of their last 4; Al-Adalah won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Wehda | 52% | 1.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Adalah | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Wehda. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.12 – 1.44| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–06.4%
- 1–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Wehda −0.5| Al-Wehda line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 21% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 14% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.