Olympiacos
NEC Nijmegen
The model leans Olympiacos at 53%. Expected goals: Olympiacos 2.01, NEC Nijmegen 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%. Olympiacos won 3 of their last 6; NEC Nijmegen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Olympiacos | 60% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.35 | – | – | – |
| 2NEC Nijmegen | 17% | 6.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Olympiacos. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.01 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.3%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–06.9%
- 3–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Olympiacos −1| Olympiacos line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.