Asteras Tripolis
Olympiacos
The model leans Olympiacos at 56%. Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 0.53, Olympiacos 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 66%. Asteras Tripolis won 0 of their last 4; Olympiacos won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Asteras Tripolis | 10% | 9.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Olympiacos | 65% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Olympiacos. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.53 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–118.6%
- 0–215.5%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–38.7%
- 1–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Olympiacos −1| Asteras Tripolis line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 9% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 23% | 66% |
| +0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| +1 | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.