Panetolikos
Asteras Tripolis
The model leans Panetolikos at 30%. Expected goals: Panetolikos 1.05, Asteras Tripolis 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Panetolikos won 2 of their last 3; Asteras Tripolis won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Panetolikos | 36% | 2.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Asteras Tripolis | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: Panetolikos. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.4%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–07.4%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Panetolikos 0| Panetolikos line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 21% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.