Predictions · Cup Preliminary Round · outside model coverage

Kalamata

42
Won

Panetolikos

The model leans Kalamata at 50%. Expected goals: Kalamata 1.53, Panetolikos 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%. Kalamata won 1 of their last 4; Panetolikos won 2 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kalamata54%1.86
XDraw28%3.54
2Panetolikos18%5.56

Pick: Kalamata. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.53 – 0.78
LineOverUnder
1.567%33%
2.541%59%
3.520%80%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 1015.2%
  • 1111.9%
  • 2011.6%
  • 0010.0%
  • 219.1%
  • 017.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kalamata −0.5
Kalamata lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%26%45%
-0.555%45%
055%26%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%13%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.