Kalamata
Panetolikos
The model leans Kalamata at 50%. Expected goals: Kalamata 1.53, Panetolikos 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%. Kalamata won 1 of their last 4; Panetolikos won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kalamata | 54% | 1.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Panetolikos | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kalamata. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.53 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kalamata −0.5| Kalamata line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.