Kalamata
Aris Thessaloniki
The model leans Kalamata at 41%. Expected goals: Kalamata 1.09, Aris Thessaloniki 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 67%. Kalamata won 1 of their last 4; Aris Thessaloniki won 3 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kalamata | 45% | 2.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Aris Thessaloniki | 20% | 4.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kalamata. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.3%
- 0–017.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kalamata −0.5| Kalamata line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 27% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 32% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 16% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.