Monza
Aris Thessaloniki
The model leans Monza at 42%. Expected goals: Monza 1.07, Aris Thessaloniki 0.59. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 69%. Monza won 2 of their last 5; Aris Thessaloniki won 3 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monza | 45% | 2.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Aris Thessaloniki | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Monza. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.07 – 0.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 1–020.3%
- 0–019.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 64% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Monza −0.5| Monza line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 27% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 33% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.