Predictions · Coppa Italia · outside model coverage
Monza
3–0
Won
Avellino
The model leans Monza at 56%. Expected goals: Monza 1.80, Avellino 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match64
24
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monza | 64% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Avellino | 12% | 8.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Monza. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.80 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.7%
- 2–014.2%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–08.7%
- 3–08.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Monza −1| Monza line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.