Galatasaray
Monza
The model leans Galatasaray at 62%. Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.30, Monza 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 50%. Galatasaray won 2 of their last 6; Monza won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Galatasaray | 71% | 1.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Monza | 10% | 9.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Galatasaray. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.30 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.2%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Galatasaray −1.5| Galatasaray line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 23% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.