Inter
Monza
The model leans Inter at 69%. Expected goals: Inter 2.69, Monza 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 54%. Inter won 4 of their last 6; Monza won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Inter | 79% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 6.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Monza | 6% | 16.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Inter. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.69 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.6%
- 3–011.3%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 4–07.6%
- 3–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Inter −2| Inter line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| -0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| 0 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.