Galatasaray
Venezia
The model leans Galatasaray at 56%. Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.21, Venezia 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. Galatasaray won 2 of their last 6; Venezia won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Galatasaray | 65% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Venezia | 15% | 6.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Galatasaray. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.21 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–07.4%
- 3–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Galatasaray −1| Galatasaray line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 19% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.