Venezia
Modena
The model leans Venezia at 53%. Expected goals: Venezia 1.62, Modena 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. Venezia won 1 of their last 6; Modena won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Venezia | 59% | 1.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Modena | 14% | 7.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Venezia. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.4%
- 2–013.3%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Venezia −1| Venezia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.