Milan
Venezia
The model leans Milan at 50%. Expected goals: Milan 1.51, Venezia 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 52%. Milan won 3 of their last 6; Venezia won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Milan | 50% | 2.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Venezia | 22% | 4.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Milan. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.9%
- 0–18.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Milan −0.5| Milan line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.